Τι θα γινόταν άραγε αν η Ρωσία πληρωνόταν σε ευρώ για το πετρέλαιο της, αντί για δολάρια;

Δυστυχώς ο χρόνος είναι πολύ περιορισμένος για να αναλύσω το θέμα όσο έπρεπε - ίσως να το κάνω κάποια στιγμή στο προσεχές μέλλον. Πάντως, θεωρώ ότι οι αναγνώστες του blog γνωρίζουν για την προσπάθεια των πετρελαιάδων (Ιράκ, Ιράν, Λιβύη, κτλ) να απομακρυνθούν από το δολάριο ως μέσο πληρωμής για το πετρέλαιο τους. Επίσης, θεωρώ ότι οι αναγνώστες γνωρίζουν και το λόγο για τον οποίο γίνεται αυτό το πράγμα (οι πετρελαιάδες δε θέλουν να πληρώνονται σε ένα νόμισμα που διαρκώς πληθωρίζεται, χωρίς κανένα όριο - ας μην ξεχνάμε και την αρχική αντίδραση των πετρελαιάδων όταν η Αμερική κατήργησε τον κανόνα του χρυσού, και άρχισε να τυπώνει δολάρια με τη σέσουλα, με τη Σαουδική Αραβία να κηρύσσει εμπάργκο, προκαλώντας την "πετρελαική κρίση του 1973").

Σε αυτή την ανάρτηση, έχω μαζέψει ένα ποτ-πουρί με δηλώσεις του Πούτιν, για τις συζητήσεις που υπάρχαν, και εξακολουθούν να υπάρχουν, ώστε και η Ρωσία να πληρώνεται σε ευρώ αντί για δολάρια, ως αντάλλαγμα για το πετρέλαιο που εξάγει στην Ευρώπη.

Οι δηλώσεις αυτές είναι ταξινομημένες σε χρονολογική σειρά, από το 1999 που πρωτοβγήκε το ευρώ μέχρι σήμερα, και κανονικά χρειάζονται περισσότερη ανάλυση, αλλά προς το παρόν δεν έχω τον απαραίτητο χρόνο για κάτι τέτοιο, οπότε αφήνω τον αναγνώστη να βγάλει τα δικά του συμπεράσματα.

Στο μέλλον, θα το ξαναδούμε το θέμα, μιας και μέχρι τώρα είχε "παγώσει", αλλά σιγά-σιγά θα "ξαναζεσταθεί".  

Εμείς έχουμε εδώ και χρόνια πει ότι η Γερμανία έχει συμμαχήσει με τη Ρωσία, και παρά τα διάφορα πολιτικά και διπλωματικά ζιγκ-ζαγκ, και τις απαραίτητες καθυστερήσεις μέχρι να προετοιμαστεί το έδαφος και να αντιμετωπιστεί και η κρίση, η ευρωζώνη θα πάει με την Κίνα-Ρωσία, και οι Ρωσοκινέζοι θα υποστηρίξουν το ευρώ έναντι του δολαρίου. Παρακολουθήστε τις δηλώσεις από το 1999 ως το σήμερα, και δείτε ότι η όλη αυτή συμμαχία πήγε πίσω χρονικά, προφανώς για να γίνουν οι κατάλληλες ετοιμασίες, αλλά εννοείται ότι ποτέ δεν σταμάτησε να υπάρχει ως σχέδιο:


Oct-1999

"Putin had previously brought up the proposal to switch to euros as prime minister in October 1999, at a meeting of EU leaders in Helsinki. Then, in an attempt to forge a new bloc to counterbalance the United States, he made the proposal alongside calling for closer cooperation between Russia and the EU, including on security issues."
"Putin - Why Not Price Oil In Euros?"

May-2001

Russia could emerge as a crucial factor in the success of the fledgling European single currency, the euro, at the expense of the US dollar after leaders at this week's Russia-European Union summit agreed to study ways to boost the currency's use in trade and increase its share in Russia's official reserves.  

EU leaders on Thursday made an audacious bid to lure Russia away from its reliance on the greenback, calling on Moscow to start accepting euros instead of dollars for its exports, dangling the attractive carrot of a boom in investment and trade.  Russia currently receives US dollars for its European oil and gas exports, but the EU wants to switch to euros instead. 

A joint communique has been signed by both sides agreeing to discuss the issue in further detail.   Chairman of the European Commission, Romano Prodi, strongly pushed the euro's case at this week's meeting, saying it would help bolster trade with Russia, attract new investment and balance the nation's hard currency reserves. 

"It is a clear sign of commitment to closer relations between the EU and Russia," Prodi said at a Kremlin news conference attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Javier Solana, EU foreign policy and security commissioner, and Swedish Prime Minister Goran Persson, whose country holds the rotating chairmanship of the EU. 
"EU urges Russia to swap dollar for euro"

Oct-2003

"President Vladimir Putin said Thursday Russia could switch its trade in oil from dollars to euros"
"Putin - Why Not Price Oil In Euros?"

May-2006

"On May 10, Russian President Vladimir Putin ignited a firestorm that is bound to sweep across the global economy. In his State of the Nation speech to parliament,, he announced that Russia was planning to make the ruble “internationally convertible” so that it could be used in oil and natural gas transactions." (σ.σ. αυτό έχει γίνει ήδη πραγματικότητα, καθώς τόσο η Ρωσία, όσο και η Κίνα, έχουν υπογράψει πλέον πολλές τέτοιες συμφωνίες, και συναλλάσονται πλέον μεταξύ τους στα δικά τους νομίσματα, όχι σε δολάρια, τόσο για το πετρέλαιο, όσο και για άλλα εμπορεύματα)

The United States must protect its dollar-monopoly in the oil trade or it will lose the advantage of being the world’s “reserve currency”. As the reserve currency, the US can maintain its towering $8.4 trillion national debt and $800 billion trade deficit without fear of soaring interest rates or hyper-inflation. Trillions of greenbacks are constantly circulating in oil transactions just as hundreds of billions are stockpiled in foreign banks. In effect, the Federal Reserve is issuing bad checks with every dollar printed on the assumption that they will never reach the bank for collection. So far, they’ve been right, and as the price of oil continues to skyrocket, the Fed just keeps cheerily printing more worthless paper sending it to the 4 corners of the earth. Regrettably, if Russia or Iran goes ahead with their conversion plan, then the bad checks will flood back to their source and precipitate a meltdown. 
"Vladimir Putin and the rise of the petro-ruble"

May-2006

"MOSCOW, May 10 (RIA Novosti) - President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that a ruble-denominated oil and natural gas stock exchange should be set up in Russia. Speaking before both chambers of parliament, cabinet members, and reporters, Putin said: "The ruble must become a more widespread means of international transactions. To this end, we need to open a stock exchange in Russia to trade in oil, gas, and other goods to be paid for with rubles."
"Our goods are traded on global markets. Why are not they traded in Russia?" Putin said."
"Putin proposes creation of ruble-denominated oil, gas exchange"

Oct-2009

"Since the dollar peak AND the break of the U.S. Dollar Index's break of the uptrend line, China and Russia have been gripping about the dollar and how we need a new reserve currency. 

Russia's president stated yesterday that it may discuss his proposal to create a new world currency when he meets with Brazil, India and China (BRIC nations) on June 16^th.

He made this proposal at the last G-20 meeting in April. However, the idea wasn't entertained there because they had "bigger fish to fry" at the time with the world economy still being quite shaky. 

Russia is also trying to "help its own cause". In November, it was reported that they now hold more Euros in reserves than dollars. Their dollar reserves decreased from 45% down to 41.5% while their euro reserves climbed from 44% up to 47.5%. Amazing how they made that shift before they started all of this "talk" huh?

The Russian president told CNBC on June 1^st that "we need a universal means of payment. It's our idea, and our Chinese colleagues support it".

Amazingly, as Russia commented on June 1^st and 2^nd. China's former central banker, Yu, also decided to chime in on the 2^nd. He was quoted as telling Geithner, "The U.S. shouldn't be complacent about China continuing to buy Treasuries. Don't think that there is no alternative to your bills and bonds. The euro is an alternative. And there are lots of raw materials we can buy.""
"China & Russia Gang up on the Dollar!"

Nov-2010

"At a recent conference on economic cooperation in Germany, Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin explained it was “quite possible” that in the future Russia would join the eurozone. He also expressed that the move would probably bring about the replacement of the US dollar with the euro as the world’s reserve currency. And, echoing a common worldwide sentiment these days, Putin added, “We should move away from the excessive monopoly of the dollar as the only global reserve currency.”"
"Putin Suggests Russia Could Join Euro Zone, Make Euro World’s Reserve Currency"

Oct-2012

"...In this respect, I hope that following on from our first steps in using the ruble-yuan pair in settlements we will move on to the next step and start using our national currencies as the real basis for servicing our bilateral trade. This is not as easy as it looks at first glance. We have already taken the first steps, however, and will continue to move in this direction, all the more so as Chinese specialists are very interested in the idea too and welcome the use of our national currencies in mutual settlements. As you know, the ruble is now a fully convertible currency and we set no limits or timeframes on outflow of capital, nor do we burden our partners with additional reserves when taking capital out of the country or converting it into dollars or euros. The yuan is not yet a fully convertible currency, but this is all a matter of time. I think we will come up with the cooperation mechanisms that will enable us to develop our financial sector relations..."

As for the idea of Russia joining the EU, we all understand perfectly well that this is not realistic either from the point of view of our size or our economic organisation. But I think we should most certainly look for means of rapprochement so as to make use of the synergy to be gained from combining the efforts of Russia and its European partners."
"Vladimir Putin meets with members of the Valdai International Discussion Club. Transcript of the beginning of the meeting"